{"id":725,"date":"2020-04-15T10:08:47","date_gmt":"2020-04-15T10:08:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kategorimagazaciligi.org\/?p=725"},"modified":"2020-04-20T19:50:01","modified_gmt":"2020-04-20T19:50:01","slug":"covid-19-is-dunyasini-nasil-etkiledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/?p=725","title":{"rendered":"TEPAV\u2019dan De\u011ferlendirme Notu: COVID-19 Salg\u0131n\u0131nda Normalle\u015fme D\u00f6nemine Ge\u00e7i\u015f Tahminleri"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomi Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Vakf\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TEPAV) bug\u00fcn yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 De\u011ferlendirme Notu, t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada ve \u00fclkemizde COVID-19 s\u00fcrecinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve \u00fclkemizin izledi\u011fi izolasyon politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ve bundan sonraki s\u00fcrecin olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ele al\u0131n\u0131yor. Prof. Dr. T\u00fcrkmen G\u00f6ksel ve Do\u00e7. Dr. Yetkin \u00c7\u0131nar\u2019\u0131n kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 De\u011ferlendirme Notu\u2019nda, bu d\u00f6nemde al\u0131nacak tedbirlerin ve uygulamalar\u0131n, senaryolardaki varsay\u0131mlardan daha farkl\u0131 olarak kat\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131\/gev\u015fetilmesi ile ko\u015fullarda meydana gelebilecek her t\u00fcrl\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011finin alt\u0131 \u00e7iziliyor.<\/b><\/p><\/div>

T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomi Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Vakf\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TEPAV) \u201cCOVID-19 Salg\u0131n\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Zirve Noktas\u0131 ve Normalle\u015fme D\u00f6nemine Kademeli Ge\u00e7i\u015f Zaman\u0131 Tahminleri\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 De\u011ferlendirme Notu\u2019nun giri\u015fi \u015f\u00f6yle:
\u0130lk olarak \u00c7in\u2019in Wuhan \u015fehrinde 8 Aral\u0131k 2019\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyaya h\u0131zla yay\u0131lan koronavir\u00fcs (Covid-19) hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131, bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131 ve \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl olmas\u0131 nedeniyle D\u00fcnya Sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (World Health Organization) taraf\u0131ndan 11 Mart 2020 tarihinde \u201cpandemi (yayg\u0131n salg\u0131n hastal\u0131k)\u201d olarak ilan edilmi\u015ftir. \u015eu an hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131n hangi h\u0131zda yay\u0131lmaya devam edece\u011fi ve olas\u0131 etkileri, T\u00fcrkiye d\u00e2hil t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya \u00fclkelerinde en \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan ve \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan konulard\u0131r. Hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131n bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k katsay\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131, bilinen bir a\u015f\u0131 ya da tedavisinin hen\u00fcz bulunmamas\u0131 ve insandan insana ge\u00e7ti\u011finin bilinmesi; yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in, sosyal izolasyon (\u00f6rne\u011fin evde kalma), mecburi \u015fartlarda d\u0131\u015far\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise sosyal mesafe kurallar\u0131na uyulmas\u0131 vb. \u015feklinde \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 gerekli k\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Halk sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in al\u0131nan bu karar ve \u00f6nlemlerin ise di\u011fer taraftan \u00e7ok ciddi sosyal ve ekonomik maliyetleri bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu nedenle hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131n hangi \u015fekilde bir yay\u0131l\u0131m izleyece\u011finin ve ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011finin tahmini hem sa\u011fl\u0131k hem de ekonomi alan\u0131ndaki t\u00fcm kararlar\u0131 etkileyecek derecede \u00f6nemli bir konu haline gelmi\u015ftir.
Bu de\u011ferlendirme notunda, Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 analiz etmek i\u00e7in Markov Zincir modelleri temelinde geli\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz bir model kullan\u0131larak projeksiyonlar yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler kamuoyunda merakla cevab\u0131 beklenen \u201czirve\/pik noktas\u0131\u201d tahmini, \u201ctedbirlerin kademeli olarak kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131\u201d ve \u201cnormalle\u015fme\u201d s\u00fcre\u00e7lerine ne zaman ge\u00e7ilebilece\u011fi konular\u0131n\u0131 kapsamaktad\u0131r. Bu not ile bahsi ge\u00e7en konular hakk\u0131nda elde etti\u011fimiz \u00f6nc\u00fcl sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n zaman kaybetmeden payla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ama\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.
Analizler T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de toplam (birikimli) vaka say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 98 toplam vaka ile 100\u2019e en \u00e7ok yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarih olan 17.03.2020 ile 18.04.2020 tarihleri aras\u0131nda T.C. Sa\u011fl\u0131k Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler kullan\u0131larak yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada \u00f6ncelikli olarak \u201cmevcut tedbirlerin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d alt\u0131nda elde edilen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 sunulacakt\u0131r. Daha sonras\u0131nda ise, varsay\u0131msal olarak \u201ce\u011fer al\u0131nan tedbirler ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7tan itibaren daha kat\u0131 ya da gev\u015fek olsa idi sonu\u00e7lar nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015firdi?\u201d sorusuna cevap aranmaktad\u0131r. Yani bir ba\u015fka ifadeyle, izolasyon politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ve bu politikalara uyum derecesinin ne gibi sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 da bu de\u011ferlendirme notunda analiz edilecektir.
Toplam ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck vaka say\u0131lar\u0131na nazaran daha \u00e7ok bilgi i\u00e7eren de\u011fi\u015fken, belirli bir tarihteki \u201cAktif Vaka Say\u0131s\u0131 (AVS)\u201dd\u0131r. Bu de\u011fi\u015fken h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda mevcut hasta say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden, analizlerimizde bu de\u011fi\u015fkeni kullanmaktay\u0131z. AVS\u2019n\u0131n hesaplanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in toplam vaka say\u0131s\u0131ndan o g\u00fcne kadar toplam iyile\u015fen ve toplam vefat eden hasta say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz.
Ayr\u0131ca, sa\u011fl\u0131k sisteminin \u00f6zellikle yo\u011fun bak\u0131m ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lay\u0131p kar\u015f\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak \u00fczere, yo\u011fun bak\u0131m ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n en \u00e7ok olaca\u011f\u0131 aktif hasta say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pik yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neme bak\u0131labilir. AVS pik say\u0131lar\u0131 ve bu tarihteki yo\u011fun bak\u0131m ihtiyac\u0131 say\u0131lar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki Tabloda sunulmu\u015ftur:<\/p>

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Bu tablodan \u00f6ncelikle anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken, \u201cMevcut durumda\u201d ve \u201cKat\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f senaryoda\u201d pik zaman\u0131nda bile sa\u011fl\u0131k sistemi g\u00f6rece rahatt\u0131r; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc mevcut yo\u011fun bak\u0131m kapasitemizin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda yo\u011fun bak\u0131m yata\u011f\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131 vard\u0131r. Gev\u015fetilmi\u015f senaryoda ise yo\u011fun bak\u0131m yata\u011f\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131 kapasiteyi a\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Bu da izolasyon ve tedbirlere \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde de uyman\u0131n ne kadar kritik oldu\u011funu ifade etmektedir.
Son olarak, buradaki analizler ve tahminler, belirli varsay\u0131mlar \u00fczerine kurulan, teknik a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ile ilgili \u00f6zet bilgiyi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131zda verdi\u011fimiz bir model ve ayr\u0131ca, 18 Nisan ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131 ile TC Sa\u011fl\u0131k Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 bir veri seti kullan\u0131larak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, kesin tarihler yerine tarih aral\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 dikkate alarak yorumlaman\u0131n daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olabilece\u011fini vurgulamak isteriz.
\u00d6rne\u011fin bu d\u00f6nemde al\u0131nacak tedbirlerin ve uygulamalar\u0131n, buradaki senaryolardaki varsay\u0131mlardan daha farkl\u0131 olarak kat\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131\/gev\u015fetilmesi ile ko\u015fullarda meydana gelebilecek her t\u00fcrl\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fiklik sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 etkileyebilecektir. Modelin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 belirli aral\u0131klarla; ilave edilen veriler, tedbirlerle ilgili olas\u0131 politika de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri ve insan davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikler dikkate al\u0131narak zaman i\u00e7inde yeniden g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/p>

De\u011ferlendirme Notu\u2019nun tamam\u0131n\u0131 okumak i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z.<\/a><\/p><\/div>

\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomi Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Vakf\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TEPAV) bug\u00fcn yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 De\u011ferlendirme Notu, t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada ve \u00fclkemizde COVID-19 s\u00fcrecinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve \u00fclkemizin izledi\u011fi izolasyon politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ve bundan sonraki s\u00fcrecin olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ele al\u0131n\u0131yor. Prof. Dr. T\u00fcrkmen G\u00f6ksel ve Do\u00e7. Dr. Yetkin \u00c7\u0131nar\u2019\u0131n kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 De\u011ferlendirme Notu\u2019nda, bu d\u00f6nemde al\u0131nacak tedbirlerin ve uygulamalar\u0131n, senaryolardaki varsay\u0131mlardan daha farkl\u0131 olarak […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-725","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-haberler"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/725","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=725"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/725\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":735,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/725\/revisions\/735"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}