{"id":719,"date":"2020-04-14T12:12:28","date_gmt":"2020-04-14T12:12:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kategorimagazaciligi.org\/?p=719"},"modified":"2020-04-14T12:14:04","modified_gmt":"2020-04-14T12:14:04","slug":"covid-19-salgini-birkac-ceyrek-surerse-ne-olur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/?p=719","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 Salg\u0131n\u0131 Birka\u00e7 \u00c7eyrek S\u00fcrerse Ne Olur?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomi Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Vakf\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TEPAV) bug\u00fcn yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Politika Notu, COVID-19 s\u00fcrecinin reel ekonomide bir de\u011fil, birka\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek s\u00fcrmesinin 2020\u2019de ne mertebede bir ekonomik daralmaya neden olaca\u011f\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bir fikir veriyor. Fatih \u00d6zatay ve G\u00fcven Sak\u2019\u0131n kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Politika Notu, reel ekonomide bu boyutta bir \u201cani duru\u015f\u201d halinde \u201c\u015feffaf ve g\u00fcvenilir bir program \u00e7er\u00e7evesi\u201d ile k\u00fcresel i\u015f birli\u011finin vazge\u00e7ilmezli\u011fini vurgulayarak, G20 temelli bir i\u015f birli\u011fi mekanizmas\u0131 \u00f6neriyor. <\/b><\/p><\/div>

T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomi Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Vakf\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TEPAV) \u201cCOVID-19 Salg\u0131n\u0131 Bir De\u011fil, Bir Ka\u00e7 \u00c7eyrek S\u00fcrerse Ne Olur?\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 Politika Notu\u2019nun giri\u015fi \u015f\u00f6yle:
Koronavir\u00fcs (COVID-19) k\u00fcresel salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n daha ciddi bir halk sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 problemi haline gelmemesi, kontroll\u00fc bir bi\u00e7imde yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in elimizdeki tek tedbir sosyal mesafe koyma. Bu ara d\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerinde oldu\u011fu gibi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc sosyal mesafe koymadan zorunlu sosyal mesafe koymaya do\u011fru a\u015fama a\u015fama ge\u00e7iyoruz. Belli \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda yirmi ya\u015f\u0131ndan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckler ve altm\u0131\u015f be\u015f ya\u015f\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fckler i\u00e7in soka\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kma yasa\u011f\u0131 geldi, \u015fehirleraras\u0131 seyahatler k\u0131s\u0131tland\u0131, \u00fcniversiteler dahil okullarda uzaktan e\u011fitime ge\u00e7ildi. Herkes gibi T\u00fcrkiye de tedbir al\u0131yor.
Bu g\u00fcne kadar, biz, (COVID-19\u2019un Ekonomik Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 Y\u00f6netebilmek \u0130\u00e7in Ne Yap\u0131labilir?, COVID-19 Nedeniyle Soka\u011fa \u00c7\u0131kma Yasa\u011f\u0131 Uygulan\u0131rsa) COVID-19\u2019un negatif iktisadi etkilerini \u00f6l\u00e7mek ve bu negatif etkiyi s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131labilecekleri tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7mak amac\u0131yla iki politika notu kaleme ald\u0131k. \u0130lkinin amac\u0131, esasen, daha \u00f6nce kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z boyutta bir negatif iktisadi \u015fokla kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fumuza dikkat \u00e7ekmek ve s\u0131rad\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerin s\u0131rad\u0131\u015f\u0131 tedbirler gerektirdi\u011fini \u00f6zellikle vurgulamakt\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, ayn\u0131 merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u2018son kertede bor\u00e7 veren\u2019 fonksiyonu gibi, reel ekonomi i\u00e7in \u2018son kertede al\u0131c\u0131\u2019 fonksiyonuna sahip bir mekanizmaya ilk kez ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ektik ve i\u015fini kaybeden, i\u015fsiz kalanlar i\u00e7in gelir deste\u011finin artan \u00f6nemini vurgulad\u0131k. Bu deste\u011fin, bu d\u00f6nemde, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Hazine\u2019nin ihra\u00e7 edece\u011fi Devlet \u0130\u00e7 Bor\u00e7lanma Senetlerini (D\u0130BS) sat\u0131n almas\u0131 vas\u0131tas\u0131yla finanse edilebilece\u011fini de \u00f6zellikle vurgulad\u0131k.
\u0130kinci notumuzda ise bu kez bu boyutta bir halk sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 problemi ile ba\u015f edebilmek i\u00e7in, bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131 hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015f seyrine de\u011fil, gelecekteki seyrine y\u00f6nelik projeksiyonlara ve \u00fcretim faaliyetlerinin bu projeksiyonlar dikkate al\u0131narak planlamas\u0131na ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z oldu\u011funu vurgulayarak, iktisadi aktivitedeki daralman\u0131n iki haneli rakamlarda olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemek gerekti\u011fini belirttik. Sonra da mal ve hizmet \u00fcretiminin sa\u011fl\u0131k sisteminin acil ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131, yeni ihtiya\u00e7lara uygun olarak d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilecek olan firmalar\u0131n d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcne katk\u0131 yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ve bunlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan firmalar\u0131n bir sonraki \u00fcretim d\u00f6nemine i\u015fletme sermayelerini kaybetmeden ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekenleri k\u0131smi olarak rakamsalla\u015ft\u0131rarak ortaya koyduk. Adil bir gelir deste\u011fi program\u0131n\u0131n maliyetini de hesaplayarak, bu tutar\u0131n devlet taraf\u0131ndan kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131nda herhangi bir sorun olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da s\u00f6yledik.
Ancak b\u00fct\u00fcn bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalarda akl\u0131m\u0131zda reel ekonomi kaynakl\u0131 birka\u00e7 ayl\u0131k, en fazla bir \u00e7eyreklik bir \u201cani duru\u015f\u201d vard\u0131 iktisadi aktivitede. Hal b\u00f6yle oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in de d\u0131\u015f alemle ili\u015fkilerimizde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir problem ya\u015fanmadan, merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131 swap anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n da yard\u0131m\u0131yla COVID-19 s\u00fcrecinin s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ulusal \u00f6nlemlerle y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclebilece\u011fini varsaym\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Ne de olsa problem yaln\u0131z T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de\u011fil, her yerdeydi.
Peki, reel ekonomide bir \u00e7eyrek de\u011fil, birka\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek s\u00fcrecek bir \u201cani duru\u015f\u201d ve bundan kaynaklanan bir resesyon varsa, ne yapmak gerekir? A\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r ki, k\u00fcresel sistem, reel ekonomi kaynakl\u0131 ani duru\u015flar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclerek tasarlanm\u0131\u015f bir acil durum m\u00fcdahale mekanizmas\u0131na sahip de\u011fil. Hele reel ekonomi kaynakl\u0131 bu acil durum her yerde ayn\u0131 anda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyorsa. Mevcut sistemimiz daha \u00e7ok bir veya birden fazla \u00fclkede finansal piyasalar kaynakl\u0131 bir \u201cani duru\u015f\u201d riskini dikkate alarak tahkim edildi en son 2007-2008 k\u00fcresel krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda. Bug\u00fcn k\u00fcresel i\u015f birli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ihtiyac\u0131 do\u011fru tespit etmek gerekir. Zorlu\u011fun nerede oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rmek gerekir.
Bu notta, COVID-19 s\u00fcrecinin reel ekonomide bir de\u011fil, birka\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek s\u00fcrmesinin 2020\u2019de ne mertebede bir ekonomik daralmaya neden olaca\u011f\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bir fikir verece\u011fiz, daha sonra ise, reel ekonomide bu boyutta bir \u201cani duru\u015f\u201d halinde \u201c\u015feffaf ve g\u00fcvenilir bir program \u00e7er\u00e7evesi\u201d ile k\u00fcresel i\u015f birli\u011finin vazge\u00e7ilmezli\u011fini vurgulayarak, G20 temelli bir i\u015fbirli\u011fi mekanizmas\u0131 \u00f6nerece\u011fiz. B\u00f6ylece tek tek \u00fclkelerde bu mertebede bir fiskal geni\u015flemenin k\u00fcresel i\u015f birli\u011fi olmadan yap\u0131labilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmi\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z. Daha \u00f6nceki notlarda fazla tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmayan d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyay\u0131, kamunun ve \u015firketlerimizin d\u0131\u015f y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan analize dahil etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>

Politika Notu\u2019nun tamam\u0131 i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z.<\/a><\/p><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomi Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Vakf\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TEPAV) bug\u00fcn yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Politika Notu, COVID-19 s\u00fcrecinin reel ekonomide bir de\u011fil, birka\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek s\u00fcrmesinin 2020\u2019de ne mertebede bir ekonomik daralmaya neden olaca\u011f\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bir fikir veriyor. Fatih \u00d6zatay ve G\u00fcven Sak\u2019\u0131n kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Politika Notu, reel ekonomide bu boyutta bir \u201cani duru\u015f\u201d halinde \u201c\u015feffaf ve g\u00fcvenilir bir program \u00e7er\u00e7evesi\u201d ile […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":720,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-719","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-haberler"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=719"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/719\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":723,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/719\/revisions\/723"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/720"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}