{"id":711,"date":"2020-04-12T18:22:57","date_gmt":"2020-04-12T18:22:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kategorimagazaciligi.org\/?p=711"},"modified":"2020-04-12T18:24:13","modified_gmt":"2020-04-12T18:24:13","slug":"kearneyden-ekonomik-etki-senaryolari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/?p=711","title":{"rendered":"Kearney\u2019den Ekonomik Etki Senaryolar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Uluslararas\u0131 Y\u00f6netim Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015firketi Kearney, COVID-19 pandemisinin d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine etkilerini yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapsaml\u0131 bir raporla de\u011ferlendirdi. Rapora g\u00f6re Kearney, pandeminin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine etkisiyle ilgili 3 senaryo \u00e7iziyor: V tipi etki, U tipi etki ve L tipi etki.<\/b><\/p><\/div>

D\u00fcnyada meydana gelen di\u011fer salg\u0131nlarla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda COVID-19 olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131. \u00c7o\u011falma ve yay\u0131lma oran\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fkenlerinden dolay\u0131 bilim insanlar\u0131 bu salg\u0131n\u0131n biti\u015f tarihini \u00f6ng\u00f6remiyor. Bu durum da sa\u011fl\u0131k ve ekonomi ile ilgili global anlamda ciddi endi\u015feler yarat\u0131yor. D\u00fcnyada bir\u00e7ok end\u00fcstri hayatta kalma m\u00fccadelesi verirken baz\u0131lar\u0131 da ciddi yaralar al\u0131yor. Bu ba\u011flamda Kearney raporunda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de pandemiden en \u00e7ok etkilenecek olan, y\u00fcksek riskli sekt\u00f6rleri \u015f\u00f6yle s\u0131ral\u0131yor: \u00dcretim, turizm\/seyahat\/ula\u015f\u0131m ve perakende.<\/p>

Perakendede Dijital Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar B\u00fcy\u00fcyecek<\/strong>
Kearney, perakendenin COVID-19 pandemisinden en fazla etkilenen sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Amerika\u2019da perakende uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l 15 bin ma\u011fazan\u0131n kapanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7eken Kearney, \u00c7in\u2019de sekt\u00f6r \u015firketlerinin 2020\u2019nin sadece birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde 213 ila 426 milyar dolar aras\u0131nda gelir kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131 tahmininde bulunuyor.
Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin di\u011fer alanlara g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha olumsuz etkilenece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda da bulunan Kearney, internet sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle birlikte \u015firketlerin bu alandaki yetkinliklerini artt\u0131rmak ve altyap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in yeni yat\u0131r\u0131m yapacaklar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>

Havac\u0131l\u0131k Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc Sert Etkilenecek<\/strong>
Raporda pandemiden en olumsuz etkilenecek sekt\u00f6rlerden bir di\u011ferinin de turizm, seyahat ve ula\u015f\u0131m olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.
K\u00fcresel otel zinciri Marriott\u2019un bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede gelirlerinin y\u00fczde 75 d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatan Kearney, havayolu \u015firketlerinin seyahat s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok olumsuz etkilendi\u011fini, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ucuz havayolu \u015firketi Ryanair\u2019in koltuk kapasitesini Nisan ve May\u0131s aylar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 80 azaltmay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de havayolu \u015firketlerinin sert \u015fekilde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunan Kearney, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda 100-120 milyon dolar gelir kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ise 68 \u00fclkeye getirilen seyahat yasa\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir\u00e7ok \u00f6nemli sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7inde bar\u0131nd\u0131ran havac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn 2020 gelirinde, 5 milyar dolar azal\u0131\u015f beklendi\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.
Kearney, s\u0131n\u0131rlama getirilmeyen kargo sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn pandemiden daha az etkilenece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>

Otomotivde \u00dcretim Durdu<\/strong>
Rapora g\u00f6re otomotiv de pandemiden en olumsuz etkilenecek sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019de hayat\u0131n yava\u015f yava\u015f normale d\u00f6nmesine ra\u011fmen otomotiv sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bir y\u0131l \u00f6nceye g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 50 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Kearney, Avrupa\u2019da da Fiat Chrysler, PSA Group, Renault Group, Volkswagen gibi \u00fcreticilerin fabrikalar\u0131 kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131na, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de Ford, Toyota ve Hyundai\u2019nin \u00fcretime ara verdi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>

Ekonomik Etki Senaryolar\u0131<\/strong>
Raporda T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 3 ekonomik senaryo mevcut. K\u00fcresel pandeminin etkilerinin 2-3 ayda atlat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u201cV tipi\u201d, ekonominin durgunlu\u011fa girece\u011fi, 4-5 ay s\u00fcrecek \u201cU tipi\u201d ve 9 aydan fazla s\u00fcrecek \u201cL tipi\u201d. Gayrisafi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la V tipi etkide y\u00fczde 3-5, U tipi etkide y\u00fczde 6-8, L tipi etkide ise y\u00fczde 14-16 daralacak.<\/p>

V tipi<\/strong>
COVID-19\u2019un ekonomiyi 2-3 ay etkileyece\u011fi \u201cV tipi etki\u201d senaryosunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda pandeminin gayrisafi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH) \u00fczerindeki etkisi y\u00fczde 3-5 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacak. Bu senaryo, b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ana ticaret ortaklar\u0131nda pandeminin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.
V tipi etkinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyada gayrisafi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lalar (GSYH), ge\u00e7en y\u0131la yak\u0131n seviyelerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. Seyahat ve turizm sekt\u00f6rleri sert darbe alacak ama ikinci yar\u0131dan itibaren toparlanmaya ba\u015flayacak. Gecikmi\u015f t\u00fcketim y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda patlayacak.
U tipi<\/strong>
Salg\u0131n\u0131n 4-5 ay s\u00fcrmesini i\u00e7eren \u201cU tipi etki\u201d senaryosunda ise GSYH y\u00fczde 6-8 oran\u0131nda daralacak. Bu senaryo pandeminin baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131n\u0131rken baz\u0131lar\u0131nda s\u00fcrmesini, ikinci \u00e7eyrekten itibaren ise daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u00fcresel i\u015f birli\u011fi yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. U tipi etki senaryosunda COVID-19 pandemisinin k\u00fcresel ekonomiye olumsuz etkisi Mart ortas\u0131ndan Temmuz ortas\u0131na kadar etkili olacak. Etki sert olmakla birlikte y\u00f6netilebilir seviyede kalacak.
Bu senaryoda \u00fclkelerin gayrisafi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lalar\u0131 2019\u2019un biraz alt\u0131nda kalacak. Baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler ikinci yar\u0131dan itibaren d\u00fczelmeye ba\u015flayacak. Seyahat ve turizm ise ancak y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde yava\u015f bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ge\u00e7ecek.
U tipi etki senaryosunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda KOB\u0130\u2019ler pandemiden \u00e7ok olumsuz etkilenecek. Nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6netimi b\u00fct\u00fcn \u015firketler i\u00e7in en s\u0131cak konulardan biri olacak.
L tipi<\/strong>
En k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryo olan \u201cL tipi etki\u201dnin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda ise Kearney GSYH\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 14-16 oran\u0131nda daralmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. L tipi etki senaryosunda vir\u00fcs\u00fcn kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131nda e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcm sa\u011flanamayacak. Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn olumsuz etkisi Mart ortas\u0131ndan en az\u0131ndan 2020\u2019nin sonuna kadar s\u00fcrecek. \u015eirketler pandemiden olumsuz etkilenecek ve gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin bekleyi\u015flere karamsarl\u0131k h\u00e2kim olacak. L tipi etki 9 aydan fazla s\u00fcrecek.
L tipi etki senaryosunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda gayrisafi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lalar 2019\u2019un ciddi oranda alt\u0131nda kalacak. Bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren d\u00fczelme m\u00fccadelesi vermeye ba\u015flayacak. Seyahat ve turizm sekt\u00f6rleri \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn e\u015fi\u011fine s\u00fcr\u00fcklenecek. B\u00fct\u00fcn sekt\u00f6rlerdeki \u015firketler \u00e7ok olumsuz etkilenecek, iflaslar g\u00fcndeme gelecek. T\u00fcketim, temel ihtiya\u00e7 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde odaklanacak.<\/p><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Uluslararas\u0131 Y\u00f6netim Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015firketi Kearney, COVID-19 pandemisinin d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine etkilerini yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapsaml\u0131 bir raporla de\u011ferlendirdi. Rapora g\u00f6re Kearney, pandeminin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine etkisiyle ilgili 3 senaryo \u00e7iziyor: V tipi etki, U tipi etki ve L tipi etki. D\u00fcnyada meydana gelen di\u011fer salg\u0131nlarla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda COVID-19 olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131. \u00c7o\u011falma ve yay\u0131lma oran\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fkenlerinden dolay\u0131 bilim insanlar\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":712,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-711","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-haberler"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=711"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/711\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":714,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/711\/revisions\/714"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/712"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}