{"id":2964,"date":"2023-03-15T11:54:28","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T11:54:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/?p=2964"},"modified":"2023-03-15T11:55:11","modified_gmt":"2023-03-15T11:55:11","slug":"kuresel-ekonomi-baski-altinda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/?p=2964","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fcresel Ekonomi Bask\u0131 Alt\u0131nda"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Euromonitor, 2023\u2019\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fini i\u00e7ine alan K\u00fcresel Ekonomik Tahminler Raporunun ilkini (Global Economic Forecasts Q1 2023) yay\u0131nlad\u0131. K\u00fcresel ekonominin 2023’te \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 ve Ukrayna’daki sava\u015ftan kaynaklanan dalgalanma etkileri ve devam eden risklerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmaya devam ederken durgunlu\u011fun e\u015fi\u011fine gelece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/strong><\/p>

K\u00fcresel reel GSY\u0130H (Gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2022’deki %3,3’ten 2023’te %2,3’e d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Enflasyonun %6,8’e d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklense de uzun vadeli e\u011filimin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde kalacak. \u0130\u015fletmeler ve t\u00fcketiciler, artan faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik faaliyet \u00fczerinde giderek daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 etkisi ile birlikte kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6recekler.<\/p>

2023’\u00fcn bu zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ra\u011fmen, baz\u0131 iyimserlik kaynaklar\u0131 var. ABD ekonomisi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda beklenenden daha diren\u00e7li oldu. Il\u0131ml\u0131 s\u0131cakl\u0131klar talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in Euro b\u00f6lgesi akut bir enerji krizinden kurtuldu. \u00c7in’in s\u0131f\u0131r COVID politikas\u0131n\u0131n sona ermesinin ard\u0131ndan yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, muhtemelen Covid-19 ile ilgili kesintilerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan 2023’te k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyebilir.<\/p>

K\u00fcresel Ekonomi Keskin Bir \u015eekilde Yava\u015fl\u0131yor<\/strong>
2023 i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, son y\u0131llar\u0131n en zay\u0131f\u0131. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ve i\u015fletmeler ve t\u00fcketiciler i\u00e7in artan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin etkisiyle talep azald\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, Rusya’n\u0131n Ukrayna’y\u0131 i\u015fgalinden kaynaklanan ekonomik serpinti, b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde a\u011f\u0131r bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Ayr\u0131ca k\u00fcresel ekonomi; Ukrayna’da devam eden sava\u015ftan kaynaklanan acil riskler, artan jeopolitik oynakl\u0131k ve artan ekonomik par\u00e7alanma dahil olmak \u00fczere birden fazla ters r\u00fczgarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya\u2026 Bu sebeple 2023 i\u00e7in keskin bir \u015fekilde azalan b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri k\u0131r\u0131lgan olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>

K\u00fcresel Ekonomiye \u0130li\u015fkin En \u00d6nemli Riskler<\/strong>
1. Ukrayna’daki sava\u015ftan kaynaklanan aksamalar<\/strong>
Ukrayna’daki sava\u015f, 2023’te k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk olmaya devam ediyor. Patlak vermesinden bu yana, ekonomik tahminler \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti. Meydana gelecek daha fazla gerginlik, muhtemelen i\u015fletmeleri ve t\u00fcketicileri olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyerek e\u015fit derecede y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 olacak.<\/p>

2. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 para politikalar\u0131<\/strong>
Merkez bankalar\u0131 ekonomik aktiviteyi yava\u015flatmak ve enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek amac\u0131yla faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla artt\u0131rd\u0131. Ancak zamanlama ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselen oranlar\u0131n etkisine ili\u015fkin y\u00fcksek belirsizlik nedeniyle parasal ko\u015fullar\u0131n olas\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel olarak ciddi bor\u00e7 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcresel bir durgunlu\u011fa neden olabilir.<\/p>

3. Tedarik zinciri k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131<\/strong>
\u00c7in’in yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, 2023’te k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyelini artt\u0131r\u0131yor. Bununla birlikte \u00fclkenin h\u0131zl\u0131 politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi hem yurt i\u00e7inde hem de k\u00fcresel olarak Covid-19 riskini artt\u0131r\u0131yor ve b\u00f6ylece k\u00f6t\u00fcmser bir Covid-19 senaryosunu besliyor.<\/p>

4. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava olaylar\u0131<\/strong>
\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in acil ve b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir risk. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava olaylar\u0131n\u0131n artan s\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, arz \u015foklar\u0131 nedeniyle en az\u0131ndan b\u00f6lgesel olarak artan ekonomik hasara, \u00fcretim kayb\u0131na ve enflasyonist bask\u0131lara neden olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Euromonitor, 2023\u2019\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fini i\u00e7ine alan K\u00fcresel Ekonomik Tahminler Raporunun ilkini (Global Economic Forecasts Q1 2023) yay\u0131nlad\u0131. K\u00fcresel ekonominin 2023’te \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 ve Ukrayna’daki sava\u015ftan kaynaklanan dalgalanma etkileri ve devam eden risklerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmaya devam ederken durgunlu\u011fun e\u015fi\u011fine gelece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. K\u00fcresel reel GSY\u0130H (Gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2022’deki %3,3’ten 2023’te […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2964","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-haberler"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2964","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2964"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2964\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2969,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2964\/revisions\/2969"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2965"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2964"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2964"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zincirmagazalar.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2964"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}